LBO return drivers
Rank the components of MOIC/IRR and when each dominates the outcome.
Direct answer
Return is driven by EBITDA growth, multiple change, and deleveraging; deal structure and entry price set the ceiling.
Walk through the structured answer
EBITDA growth and margin expansion
Operational improvements and add-ons lift EBITDA, compounding equity value and reducing leverage ratios.
Multiple expansion or contraction
Entry vs. exit multiple movement can swing returns dramatically; base case should assume flat multiples unless justified.
Deleveraging
Paying down debt with cash flow increases equity value and IRR even if multiples stay flat.
Timing and capital structure
Hold period, interest rates, and PIK features change cash build and equity contribution, influencing IRR vs. MOIC.
Pitfalls to avoid
- Counting multiple expansion twice (in both base and upside cases).
- Ignoring cash drag from high minimum liquidity in debt docs.
- Assuming aggressive EBITDA growth without linked operational initiatives.
Follow-up angles
- Which of these drivers is most reliable for this target?
- How do covenant packages change deleveraging speed?
- How does a dividend recap alter the return mix?
Keep drilling the set
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